Our Guy Joe

Joe Flacco ISN'T an ELITE quarterback- but I would bet money that he will be soon!

By Rayisyourdaddy on Apr 12 2013, 10:00a

Flacco's coming for the other elite QB's - USA TODAY Sports

An in-depth look into Joe Flacco's career through year 5 comparing him to the elite quarterbacks, and showing why everyone will consider him elite in the near future.

I started writing this article when everyone was debating how much Joe Flacco was worth, but once he got paid in his 6 year 120 million dollar contract, I left it unwritten.

However, with Tony Romo signing his extension, a friend of mine commented "I would still take Romo over Flacco any day." I rattled off some statistics, and argued with him a little. But then I told him, I would show him why he should chose Flacco over almost any other quarterback in the league.

The big question which seems impossible to settle until Flacco plays a few more seasons is: Is Joe Flacco an elite quarterback? It depends on your definition of elite; but based on my definition he is not. At least not yet.

e·lite

/iˈlēt/

A group of people considered to be the best in a particular society or category, esp. because of their power, talent, or wealth.

How does this apply to football, and quarterbacks in particular? My definition is based on what defines our current crop of elite quarterbacks:

1. Multiple season's of Pro-bowl caliber stats, 3000+ yards, 30+ tds
2. Sustained regular season AND post-season success, usually including at least 1 ring

Flacco has sustained regular season and postseason success, but he hasn't hit the statistical criteria. Other QB's like Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, and Matt Ryan may have the statistics, but don't have the postseason resume's. The only active quarterbacks who would be defined as elite according to this definition are: Tom Brady. Peyton Manning.Drew Brees. and Aaron Rodgers.

Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger would just miss based on this definition. They have both only topped 30 td's once, and while breaking 4000 yards multiple times is nice, it is skewed by the amount of attempts. Each has 2 rings which also contributes to the illusion that they are elite, but the problem is they both don't take their teams to the playoffs almost every year, nor win games there on a regular basis. So I categorize those 2 in a category called sub-elite.

So back to Joe Flacco. Aaron Rodgers is a hard comparison because he didn't play for 3 years, and although he is obliterating my statistical benchmarks and you can never count him out, he only had success in the playoffs once, when he won a ring. The real question is how does the first 5 years of Flacco's career compare to the first 5 years starting of our other 3 elite QB's (and sub-elite), all who became starting QB's in their first or second years?

The big knocks on Joe were inconsistency, lack of big numbers. and having a good defense for most of his career. Debunking the criticism:

Point 1: Inconsistency

I decided to delve into the numbers to see if any of the elite or sub-elite QB's, also had inconsistency problems early on:

Brady year 5: 6 games of 100+ QBR, 4 games of 80-100 QBR, 4 games of 60-80 QBR, and 2 games of 40-60 QBR

Brees year 5: 5 games of 100+ QBR, 7 games of 80-100 QBR, 3 games of 60-80 QBR, and 1 games of 40-60 QBR

Peyton year 5: 3 games of 100+ QBR, 7 games of 80-100 QBR, 5 games of 60-80 QBR, and 1 games of 40-60 QBR

Eli year 5 (only started 1/2 of year 1): 3 games of 100+ QBR, 6 games of 80-100 QBR, 5 games of 60-80 QBR, and 2 games of 40-60 QBR.

Roethlisberger year 5: 4 games of 100+ QBR, 6 games of 80-100 QBR, 1 games of 60-80 QBR, and 4 games of 40-60 QBR.

Flacco year 5: 6 games of 100+ QBR, 3 games of 80-100 QBR, 5 games of 60-80 QBR, and 2 games of 40-60 QBR.

As you can see, all of these elite and sub-elite QB's had similar issues with consistency. Inconsistency isn't really a knock on Flacco; he is just your typical 5th year QB. In fact it shows that he is further along than Eli and Big Ben in terms of consistency and had shown more upside than them in year 5. It also shows that he is currently on par with Brady, Brees, and Peyton (although Peyton had less 100+ games) in their 5th year. Inconsistency is part of the growing process of all quarterbacks, even elite ones.

Point 2: Lack of big numbers statistically

Brady didn't explode offensively until year 7, when a WR named Randy Moss joined him in New England. Brees didn't break 30 tds until year 7 as a starter (3rd year in New Orleans), which was when he also had his first 5000 yard season. Peyton started a little quicker and had 33 tds in year 3, but didn't break 30 again until year 7 when he exploded with 49 tds. Roethlisberger and Eli have only broken 30 tds once each in their careers, Eli in his 6th year starting.

See here for the stats from the first 5 years starting for some of the elite QB's:

Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Y/G	Rate	Sk	4QC	GWD
23	QB	16	16	8-8-0	320	526	60.8	3284	17	16	205.3	76.9	24	2	4
24	QB	11	11	2-9-0	205	356	57.6	2108	11	15	191.6	67.5	21	0	1
25	QB	15	15	11-4-0	262	400	65.5	3159	27	7	210.6	104.8	18	1	2
26	QB	16	16	9-7-0	323	500	64.6	3576	24	15	223.5	89.2	27	2	2
27	QB	16	16	10-6-0	356	554	64.3	4418	26	11	276.1	96.2	18	1	2

Year	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Y/G	Rate	Sk	4QC	GWD
2008	23	QB	16	16	11-5-0	257	428	60.0	2971	14	12	185.7	80.3	32	1	2
2009	24	QB	16	16	9-7-0	315	499	63.1	3613	21	12	225.8	88.9	36	1	2
2010	25	QB	16	16	12-4-0	306	489	62.6	3622	25	10	226.4	93.6	40	2	4
2011	26	QB	16	16	12-4-0	312	542	57.6	3610	20	12	225.6	80.9	31	2	3
2012	27	QB	16	16	10-6-0	317	531	59.7	3817	22	10	238.6	87.7	35	4	4

Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Y/G	Rate	Sk	4QC	GWD
24	QB	15	14	11-3-0	264	413	63.9	2843	18	12	189.5	86.5	41	4	5
25	QB	16	16	9-7-0	373	601	62.1	3764	28	14	235.3	85.7	31	2	3
26	QB	16	16	14-2-0	317	527	60.2	3620	23	12	226.3	85.9	32	4	7
27	QB	16	16	14-2-0	288	474	60.8	3692	28	14	230.8	92.6	26	0	2
28	QB	16	16	10-6-0	334	530	63.0	4110	26	14	256.9	92.3	26	3	4

Year	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Y/G	Rate	Sk	4QC	GWD
1998	22	QB	16	16	3-13-0	326	575	56.7	3739	26	28	233.7	71.2	22	1	1
1999*	23	QB	16	16	13-3-0	331	533	62.1	4135	26	15	258.4	90.7	14	6	7
2000*	24	QB	16	16	10-6-0	357	571	62.5	4413	33	15	275.8	94.7	20	2	3
2001	25	QB	16	16	6-10-0	343	547	62.7	4131	26	23	258.2	84.1	29
2002*	26	QB	16	16	10-6-0	392	591	66.3	4200	27	19	262.5	88.8	23	4	5

Player 1 is Drew Brees. Player 2 is Joe Flacco. Player 3 is Tom Brady. Player 4 is Peyton Manning

When you take into account that Flacco has thrown much less attempts through season 5 than Brady, Brees and Peyton, you realize that the yardage totals aren't an indicator of skill as much as sheer abundance of throws, much like Matt Stafford the past 2 years. Stafford's numbers the past 2 years are skewed by the lack of run game. He had 1390 attempts over the past 2 years, which averages to over 43 attempts a game. He only averaged 7.6 ypa, which is less than many average QB’s, including Henne, Locker, Kolb etc. If Flacco was given those attempts, and would have maintained his pace he would have had 4515 yds in 2011 and 5225 yds in 2012. So I do not respect Stafford for his yardage totals. Rodgers 4643 yds in 2011 on only 502 attempts (9.2 ypa) is much more impressive than Staffords 5038 on 663. To give you an idea, if given those attempts Rodgers would have put up 6132 yds! Holy crap. Andrew Luck's rookie season was less impressive than RG3's and Russell Wilson's because they had under 400 passing attempts, in addition to their advantage as rushers, and Luck had a ridiculous 627 attempts to break the rookie yardage record.

So the bottom line is, none of the elite QB's put up those video-game caliber numbers before year 7, so why do people expect that Flacco should?

Point 3: Having a good defense

People say that Flacco has benefited from a top defense his whole career, and he hasn't had to do much to win. They compare him to Mark Sanchez making the AFCCG 2 years in a row. But they don't look deeper than that. The only championships that Tom Brady has won were in the first 4 years he was starting. His teams went 11-5, 14-2 and 14-2. You think his defense wasn't good? He only put up between 18-28 tds a year, so they must have been really good to be dominating like that. We all know how good Eli's defensive line was in his 2 title runs. Big Ben won many games early in his career too, with his dominant defense and stellar run game leading the way. So I am not sure why this is used as an argument against Joe.

Now the truth is, I don't mind the Sanchez comparisons for the first 2 years of Flacco's career. Those 2 years the defense led the way, with Flacco attempting to not screw it up and make an occasional big play, ala Trent Dilfer. But in the past 3 years, the playoff runs and the regular season success were just as much a product of Flacco's importance as the defensive performance. Flacco's playoff stats:

Year(s)	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	Yds/Att	TD	INT	QBR
2008-09	57	120	47.5%	660	5.5	1	6	46
2010-11	77	127	60.6%	872	6.9	7	2	93
2012	73	126	57.9%	1140	9.0	11	0	117.2

In addition, take a look at his teams record when he has a bad performance in relation to the elite and sub-elite quarterbacks:

Rodgers has won 30% of his games when he performs badly. Peyton Manning 42%. Ben Roethlisberger 33%. Tom Brady 37.5 %. Eli Manning 32%. Drew Brees 20%. and Joe Flacco 41%. (Keep in mind this is Flacco's first 5 years in the league vs, the other QB's prime years) So Flacco wins slightly more of his bad performances than Tom Brady, 10% more than Rodgers, Eli and Big Ben, 20% more than Drew Brees, but the same amount as Peyton? It is amusing- we all know that Roethlisberger and Brady played with good defenses, but Peyton and Drew Brees have never had good defenses (prior to Peyton's Denver team this year). Yet Peyton and Brees have very different % of wins. Clearly having an elite defense doesn't automatically mean you are going to win games, even when your QB has a stinker, and Flacco's win % in stinkers is near identical to Peyton, who didn't have an elite defense.

In addition, Brady also had 34 games of less than a 80 passer rating in his first 5 years starting. He was 15-19 in those 34 games, or nearly identical to Flacco's 14-20.

In Summation:

There are 3 parts to a players career, which are more pronounced at Quarterback. There is the ascendance, the peak or prime, and the decline. Flacco is a player who just is hitting his prime as an NFL QB. It is hard to compare him to players in their peak or just past their peak like Peyton or Brady, because Flacco came into the league 7 years later. None of those quarterback's were throwing 40+ td's every year when they were at his stage, so why does everyone expect him to. The real question you have to ask is how does he compare to elite players when they were at the stage he is now. My answer is he stacks up really well.

Comparing him to the rest of the league:

Additionally, here are many out there who want to anoint the next best thing at QB and say that they are better than Flacco. So let's look at the those QB's and see whether they really are better. They fall under 3 categories: The young guns, the ceiling QB's, and the not-battle tested.

The young guns: Colin Kapernick, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford,

The ceiling QB's: Andy Dalton, Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers, Matt Schaub

The not battle tested: Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Josh Freeman, Andy Dalton

Category 1: The Young Guns

The problem with saying that Colin Kapernick, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson are already in the top 10 QB's is that 1 year means nothing. Teams have less game tape to study, and in the NFL, that is an advantage for the rookie QB. But by year 2, there is a high probability of regression.

Look at these 3 stat lines from first year starting QB's:

Year	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Y/A	Y/G	Rate
2007*	24	QB	16	15	10-5-0	298	527	56.5	3787	29	19	7.2	236.7	82.5

Year ▴	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Y/A	Y/G	Rate
2012	23	QB	16	15	11-5-0	339	627	54.1	4374	23	18	7.0	273.4	76.5

Year	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Y/A	Y/G	Rate
2010	23	QB	16	16	7-9-0	354	590	60.0	3512	18	15	6.0	219.5	76.5

Player #1 is Derek Anderson. Player #2 is Andrew Luck. Player #3 is Sam Bradford.

Derek Anderson never returned to the heights of his Pro-bowl year. Sam Bradford will be a very good QB in this league, but has yet to make a significant jump from his rookie year through his 3rd year in the league. We all know Cam Newton had a slight regression in year 2 starting. I am not saying Luck, Kapernick, Griffin or Wilson are not going to be elite, franchise QB's. Chances are all of them will be. But they have alot of growing to do before they are top 10 QB's.

Category 2: The Ceiling Quarterback's

These are the QB's who have hit their ceilings. These guys have all been starting in the league 7+ years, are on the wrong side of 30, and have yet to consistently put up elite stats or make a significant run in the playoffs.

Jay Cutler: 6 (full) years starting, 51-42 record, 0 seasons 30+ tds, 1-1 playoff record, missed the playoffs 5/6 years

Tony Romo: 7 years starting, 55-38 record, 2 season's 30+ tds, 1-3 playoff record, missed the playoffs 4/7 years.

Phillip Rivers: 7 years starting, 70-42 record, 2 season's 30+ tds, 3-4 playoff record, missed the playoffs 3/7 years.

Matt Schaub: 6 years starting, 44-36 record, 0 season's 30+ tds, 1-1 playoff record, missed the playoffs 4/6 years.

Some of these QB's have great resumes. Other's are not that impressive. All of them has at least 1 pro-bowl on their resume, unlike Flacco. But they all seem to have reached their ceiling. It is possible one of them will surprise me and lead their team to the promised land. However I think all of these QB's, have shown us what they can do. 7 years starting is how long it took Brady, Manning, and Brees to peak. Some of the ceiling quarterbacks have shown us they can put up big numbers starting, matching the stats of sub-elite QB's Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. But none have shown the ability to lead their team on a playoff run, nor have they even shown they can make the playoffs on a regular basis. Only Rivers (4 Pro-bowls) has strung together multiple playoff wins, but that was on greatChargers team with Tomlinson and a top ranked defense. He also hasn't made the playoffs in 4 years.

So I don't really think that any of these quarterbacks have proven to be better than Flacco, because despite many years and opportunities, none of them have put up consistent elite-level stats nor done anything in the playoffs.

Category 3: The Not Battle Tested

Last but not least, we have the not battle tested quarterbacks. Matt Ryan is the best of these QB's, but lets discuss the other 3 first. Dalton, Stafford, and Freeman have all been impressive and are still young. Dalton and Stafford have each made the playoffs in the past 2 years, and Stafford has basically broken 5000 yards 2 years running and also threw over 40 td's in 2011. However he also had 1390 attempts, which is a ridiculous amount (over 43 attempts a game). He only averaged 7.6 ypa, which is less than many average QB’s, including Henne, Locker, Kolb etc. If Flacco was given those attempts, and would have maintained his pace he would have had 4515 yds in 2011 and 5225 yds in 2012. So I do not respect Stafford for his yardage totals. He also has Megatron. Like the young guns, I think he could prove himself elite at some point in his career. But right now he is unproven despite his Madden-esque numbers. He needs to win some playoff games and put up those numbers consistently before you can put him ahead of a winning QB like Flacco.

Dalton and Freeman have shown flashes, but lack the numbers, consistency, and the winning pedigree to be top 10 QB's. I am not saying they won't get there, but neither of them boast better numbers, nor have they won anything.

Last but not least is Matt Ryan. Since they were drafted the same year, they will always be compared. But as many Ravens fans, I believe that Flacco has shown to be the superior QB thus-far, despite averaging 5 less touchdowns a season.

Flacco:

Year	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Y/A	Y/G	Rate
2008	23	QB	16	16	11-5-0	257	428	60.0	2971	14	12	6.9	185.7	80.3
2009	24	QB	16	16	9-7-0	315	499	63.1	3613	21	12	7.2	225.8	88.9
2010	25	QB	16	16	12-4-0	306	489	62.6	3622	25	10	7.4	226.4	93.6
2011	26	QB	16	16	12-4-0	312	542	57.6	3610	20	12	6.7	225.6	80.9
2012	27	QB	16	16	10-6-0	317	531	59.7	3817	22	10	7.2	238.6	87.7
Career			80	80	54-26-0	1507	2489	60.5	17633	102	56	7.1	220.4	86.3

Ryan:

Year	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Y/A	Y/G	Rate
2008	23	QB	16	16	11-5-0	265	434	61.1	3440	16	11	7.9	215.0	87.7
2009	24	QB	14	14	9-5-0	263	451	58.3	2916	22	14	6.5	208.3	80.9
2010*	25	QB	16	16	13-3-0	357	571	62.5	3705	28	9	6.5	231.6	91.0
2011	26	QB	16	16	10-6-0	347	566	61.3	4177	29	12	7.4	261.1	92.2
2012*	27	QB	16	15	13-3-0	422	615	68.6	4719	32	14	7.7	294.9	99.1
Career			78	77	56-22-0	1654	2637	62.7	18957	127	60	7.2	243.0	90.9

Statistically, Ryan has averaged 5 more td's per year than Flacco. But if you look carefully, you will notice something interesting. Before the Falcons drafted Julio Jones, the 2 QB's were neck to neck. Flacco (10,260 yds, 62%, 60 tds, 34 int, 32-16 record) vs. Ryan (10,061 yds, 62%, 66 tds 34 int, 33-15 record). Once Julio Jones came into the league, you see a significant jump in Ryan's numbers. Obviously, you have to give some credit to Ryan for upping his game too, but his lack of playoff success is a major flaw on his resume. Some might choose Ryan over Flacco based on his superior stats. But his post-season resume couldn't be more lacking:

Ryan: 1-4 record, 1230 yds, 9 td 7 int, made playoffs 4/5 years

Flacco: 9-4 record, 2672 yds, 19 tds 8 int, made playoffs and won at least 1 game every year, made 3 AFCCG and 1 ring.

His stats may not be as pretty as Ryan's but any team will take a player who wins in the playoffs over a guy who puts up a few more td's a season.

Flacco has not proven himself elite, but his winning speaks for itself. I would think that after really looking at the numbers in the context of elite players and their early career's, most people would choose Flacco over every QB not named Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers or Roethlisberger. Maybe even over Eli and Roethlisberger based on his clearly higher ceiling. His games might not have looked as pretty thus-far as you would want from your $20 million quarterback, but the results are all that matters. And he is a winner with a ring and a Super Bowl MVP. He has set multiple postseason records, including best road QB, most playoff wins in the first 5 years (tied with Brady), and matching Joe Montana's 11 td: 0 int postseason. So if you want to be honest with yourself, you will realize that the 28 year old QB with the playoffs chops is a far better choice than the 33 year old loser or the unproven young gun, whether it be Romo, Schaub, Ryan, Luck or RGIII. Flacco's numbers speak for themselves, it's just a matter of whether you are actually listening.

One last chart and a quote from the corresponding article, for those who want to see Flacco's stats in the context of history:

It’s worth remembering that it’s far too early to write the book on Joe Flacco’s career. The table below shows Flacco, the nine quarterbacks that entered the league after the AFL-NFL merger and the eight quarterbacks with rings that are either active or have retired in the last three years. The table below shows how many games they had started after 5 years, their passing stats through five years, and their career NY/A and ANY/A averages after year five. The final two columns show their NY/A and ANY/A relative to league average.

QB	GS	Att	PYD	PTD	INT	Sk	Skyd	ANY/A	NY/A	ANY/A%	NY/A%
Dan Marino	69	2494	19422	168	80	67	553	7.27	7.37	146	125
Peyton Manning	80	2817	20618	138	100	108	733	6.2	6.8	118	116
Brett Favre	61	2149	14825	108	66	129	823	5.79	6.15	111	104
Jim Kelly	71	2088	15730	105	72	150	1172	6	6.5	118	109
Joe Flacco	80	2489	17633	102	56	174	1218	5.98	6.16	103	99
Ben Roethlisberger	71	1905	14974	101	69	192	1253	6.03	6.54	109	108
Kurt Warner	49	1623	14082	101	64	108	679	7.25	7.74	139	132
Eli Manning	71	2284	14623	98	74	120	844	5.16	5.73	94	95
Tom Brady	62	2018	13925	97	52	130	787	5.93	6.12	111	103
John Elway	68	2158	14835	85	77	142	1054	5.22	5.99	105	102
Drew Brees	58	1809	12348	80	53	92	724	5.7	6.11	106	103
Warren Moon	68	1977	14669	78	85	171	1387	5.13	6.18	103	105
Joe Montana	49	1645	11979	78	44	94	683	6.25	6.5	127	109
Troy Aikman	68	1920	13627	69	66	139	932	5.39	6.17	105	104
Aaron Rodgers	32	1136	8801	59	21	93	607	6.86	6.67	121	108
Terry Bradshaw	51	1227	7524	48	81	121	1056	2.81	4.8	69	87
Dan Fouts	43	1094	7658	34	57	100	722	4.23	5.81	107	109
Steve Young	28	763	5468	32	27	96	668	4.92	5.59	99	95

After year five, Aaron Rodgers had only been a starter for two years, Steve Young had only started 9 games for the 49ers, and Dan Fouts had barely begun building his Hall of Fame career. Terry Bradshaw won his first Super Bowl in year five, and had been a worse quarterback than Flacco up to that point in his career. Eli Manning and Flacco have had similar starts to their careers, too. Meanwhile, Warren Moon, John Elway, Troy Aikman, and Drew Brees weren’t playing at Hall of Fame levels at this stage of their careers, either.

Flacco has a long way to go towards building a Hall of Fame career, and even his win on Sunday won’t separate him from players like Mark Rypien, Jim McMahon, Doug Williams, Joe Theismann, and Phil Simms. But it’s worth remembering that Flacco is still pretty young, and who knows what having won this Super Bowl could do for him.

Look at the chart: Through 5 years, Flacco was in the top 5 in games started and touchdowns, top 3 in yards, bottom 7 in interceptions, and top 10 in ANY/A & NY/A. I think that is a quarterback who everyone needs to stop overlooking and pay him his due. Because before you can blink, he is going to be the next elite quarterback. So you can keep your Romo's and your Luck's, because I, like every Raven's fan can appreciate what we have.

http://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/2013/4/12/4204424/joe-flacco-isnt-an-elite-quarterback-but-i-would-bet-money-that-he