Another Storm Coming?

**Updated Storm Scenarios For The Week Ahead**

Was Sandy The Beginning?

Projected fronts and air masses for Thursday morning 11/6

10:10 PM EDT 11/3 | UPDATED TEAM STATEMENT | Our Winter Stormcast Team is increasingly concerned about the possible effects of a new storm system which may arrive in approximately five days along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

We have updated our three scenarios which might take place next week, from more likely (Scenario A) to less likely (Scenario C). It should be noted that Hurricane Sandy had a significant effect on the air flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, and may have set in motion a pattern which could produce several additional storms in rapid sequence over the next few weeks. Our multi-state team is continuing to analyze the data that becomes available and will keep you posted. See below for the scenarios. (Forecasters Jason Isaacs [GA], Zach Fasnacht [PSU], Rich Foot [MD], Alex Davies [DE] and the Winter Stormcast Team).

The graphic below is from the U.S. Global Forecast System Ensemble projection for md next week. The image that shows that a trough will be building throughout the Eastern United States in the days ahead. Regardless of the scenario that develops, this trough will produce a period of increased storm potential. Below is the preliminary long range forecast map for next Wednesday, and the animation so you can see the general storm track ideas. We will revise this report Sunday afternoon or early evening.

NOAA RESOURCES Additional reports from NOAA Meteorologists to aid in our analysis of storm potential include:

• Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion by the good folks at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, affectionately known by weather warriors as "the HPC."
• U.S. Hazard Assessment by the Climate Prediction Center, known as the CPC. Scroll down below the imagery to see the report text.
• 6-10 Day Outlooks, also by the CPC including temperature and precipitation.

From the NOAA U.S. Hazards Assessment report & graphic

SCENARIO A: COASTAL RAIN; SNOW FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95. The storm keeps a parallel course following the southeastern, mid-Atlantic, and northeastern coastline. The storm would be the strongest at 984 mb by Thursday afternoon off the New Jersey coastline. The storm will be closest to land near Long Island, New York on early Friday morning. With this scenario LITTLE to NO snow accumulations would occur in the major metropolitan areas of the I-95 corridor from Richmond to New York.

Possible effects to Sandy impact areas

• High temps: Coastal highs ~50 F, Inland highs upper 40s 

• Low temps: Coastal lows in low 40s, inland lows mid 30s 

• Rainfall: 2-3" from the coast inland to the I-95 corridor   

• Coastal wind: Sustained 25-35 mph, gusts up to 55 mph 

• Inland wind: (interior NJ/Delmarva to I-95)

Sustained 15-25 mph, gusts 40 MPH  

• Snowfall: Starting early Thursday morning for inland areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast including central Appalachians of Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York and the White/Green Mountains of New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. All snowfall would come to an end by Friday Evening. 

SCENARIO B: SIGNIFICANT RAIN / MOUNTAIN MIX. The storm keeps a parallel course following the southeastern coastline. The storm early Thursday morning would travel slightly inland at the Maryland/Delaware border with a minimum pressure of 988 mb. By Thursday afternoon, the storm would resume a N/NE path and following the northeastern coastline, traveling just east of NJ. 

Possible effects to Sandy impact areas 

• High temps: Coastal highs low 50s, Inland highs ~50 F

        • Low temps: Coastal lows in mid 40s, inland lows mid 30s

• Rainfall: 2-3" from the coast to the I-95 corridor   

• Coastal winds: Sustained 25-35 mph, gusts to 55 mph 

• Snowfall: Possible rain/snow mix in West Virginia/western areas of Virginia/southern Appalachians. No major accumulations due to mixing.

SCENARIO C: COASTAL RAIN + SNOW I-95 & WEST. The storm keeps a parallel course following the Southeastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeastern Coastline. The storm Early Thursday Afternoon has the possibility of going slightly inland near Boston, Massachusetts with a minimum pressure reading of 988 MB before heading out to sea and keeping a north-northeast course following the Northeastern Coastline. This scenario would bring a significant surge of colder air, and introduce the possibility of brief snow in the I-95 corridor from New York to Washington.

Possible effects to Sandy impact areas

• Rainfall: Amounts up to 2 ½ inches 

• Wind: Gusting to 40 MPH 

• Snowfall: Starting early Thursday morning for inland areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast including central Appalachians of Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York and the White/Green Mountains of New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. All snowfall would come to an end by Friday Evening.

http://www.footsforecast.org/2012/11/storm-scenarios-1052-pm-edt-112-isaacs.html