Joe Flacco has been the subject of criticism throughout his young NFL career. He was targeted last season in the playoffs, and even as recently as last week, but a closer look at the data shows that Flacco could be emerging as a legitimate MVP candidate in 2012.
Start with this simple fact: Eight of the NFL's past 10 MVPs have been quarterbacks, so we know we're looking in the right place for likely candidates. Next, it's a matter of using QBR and other data to find the cream of the crop. The search for potential candidates began with the top 10 QBs by QBR. Since QBR measures the total impact of a quarterback on his team, if a QB is not in the top 10, at least at this point in the season, he shouldn't be considered in the MVP race. The top 10 includes Flacco (69.7), Tom Brady (76.6), Matt Ryan (80.0) and Ben Roethlisberger(80.4).
From those 10, I knocked off all QBs who were not part of a top-10 offense (determined by total points scored) on the basis that any QB winning the MVP should be from an offense that can score -- which eliminated Andrew Luck and Roethlisberger. Then, to determine how important a QB was to his team's offense, I compared the total points that each QB created (Total EPA) to the team's total points scored to determine what percentage of the team's points were created by the QB's play. The average QB accounted for 17 percent of his team's offense, and of the remaining potential MVP candidates the top three were Flacco (24 percent), Brady (23 percent) and Ryan (26 percent) -- meaning that each of these QBs accounted for about a quarter of their team's points.
Brady and Ryan require little defense of their early MVP credentials, as each has earned a reputation as an elite QB. Flacco, however, is regularly discussed as an overrated QB who has a great win total due to his defense, not his personal contribution to the Ravens. As the Ravens' defense has ranked third or better in each of the past three seasons (while the offense hasn't cracked the top 10), there is a certain validity to the argument -- or at least there was.
The Ravens' offense has picked it up this season and is currently fifth in points scored and second in total yardage, while the defense is currently 11th in points allowed and 23rd in yardage allowed. The offense is running the show now in Baltimore.
The Baltimore offense includes fantasy football all-star Ray Rice, but this change isn't due just to him. The Ravens' running game is good (fifth in the league with 4.7 yards per attempt), but it's the passing game that drives this offense, gaining 8.2 yards per attempt (fourth in the NFL). Flacco's critics would probably suggest that the high yards per attempt is due to short screens to Rice, and that it is Rice who does all the work -- except that the opposite is true.
While the league average for the length of a pass is 8.2 yards, Flacco's passes average 10.7 yards in the air. This is the longest average in the league, and he is still completing nearly 60 percent of his passes. To put the 60 percent completion rate in context, of the five teams that have the highest average length of pass, only Flacco has a completion rate of more than 50 percent -- and the completion rate for the entire league is only 56 percent. The accuracy on the long ball is a significant change for Flacco, who last year completed only 17 passes more than 20 yards in length, but has already completed 11 this season.
To add to the MVP argument for Flacco, take a look at the Ravens' offensive line. Flacco is throwing the ball down the field accurately, creating nearly a quarter of his team's offense, despite an offensive line that is not what it once was. This season Flacco has been sacked nine times and the average time in the pocket he's had on each of those sacks is 2.9 seconds, the fastest average sack time in the league. Last season, Flacco was getting a lot more time to make throws, as he wasn't being hit until 3.8 seconds on average. By way of comparison, Brady's average sack time is 3.5 seconds and Ryan's is 4.0 seconds. Flacco is not only throwing the ball deeper and more accurately than any other quarterback, he is doing it with less time in the pocket.
The season is young, and the Ravens may yet revert to their previous ways of dominant defense and average offense. But looking at the data right now, it's hard not to see Flacco as an elite level QB -- and one who warrants MVP consideration.
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